NCAA Tournament Simulator (TruTourney)
TruTourney uses Monte Carlo simulation to project NCAA Tournament outcomes, running over 10,000 full bracket simulations to estimate each team's probability of advancing through every round to the championship. In each simulation, every game is resolved by converting the TruRanking rating differential between the two teams into a win probability using the same logistic model that powers the TruPredictions. A random number draw determines the winner, and the bracket advances round by round until a champion is crowned. The frequency with which each team reaches a given round across all simulations produces its advancement probability.
Championship odds listed at 12% mean that team won the title in roughly 1,200 out of 10,000 simulations. Because the simulation respects actual bracket structure, a strong team in a difficult region may show lower odds than a similarly-rated team in an easier draw. Before Selection Sunday, TruTourney simulates using the TruBrackets projected field. After the official bracket is released, it switches to the real matchups, and during the tournament, completed games are locked in so probabilities update in real time. For full details on the simulation methodology, see the Methodology page.
Using the Matchup Calculator & Simulation Modes
Matchup Calculator
The head-to-head matchup calculator lets you select any two tournament teams and see the projected win probability for a hypothetical neutral-site game between them. This is based on the same rating differential and logistic model used in the full bracket simulation, providing a quick way to evaluate specific potential matchups.
Simulation Modes
Before Selection Sunday, simulations use the TruBrackets projected bracket. After the official bracket is released, simulations switch to the real matchups. During the tournament, completed games are locked in and only remaining matchups are simulated, so probabilities update in real time as the bracket unfolds.
Championship Odds
Head-to-Head Matchup Calculator
Select two teams to see head-to-head probability
Advancement Probabilities
About TruTourney
TruTourney uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate each team's probability of advancing through the NCAA Tournament. We run 10,000+ simulations of the entire bracket, using TruRanking ratings to determine win probability for each matchup. All tournament games are treated as neutral site contests.
Probabilities update daily based on the latest TruBrackets projection. After Selection Sunday, simulations use the official NCAA bracket. During the tournament, completed games are locked in and only remaining matchups are simulated.