Below are answers to the most common questions about how TruRanking works. For a full technical explanation of the system, see the Methodology page. For definitions of specific analytics terms, see the Glossary.

How often are TruRanking ratings updated?

Rankings update daily after all games from the previous day are processed. During conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament, updates may occur more frequently to capture results as they happen. The Full Rankings page always shows the most recent ratings.

What makes TruRanking different from other college basketball rating systems?

TruRanking is fully automated with no human polling or subjective bias. The model is built exclusively on game-level efficiency data and strength of schedule, producing purely analytical rankings that complement poll-based systems like the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. TruRanking is also the only site that provides daily updates across all of the following from a single integrated model: team efficiency ratings, NCAA bracket projections, game-by-game predictions with spread analysis, best bets, historical season tracking, and NCAA Tournament pool management.

What is a tempo-free efficiency rating?

A tempo-free efficiency rating measures team performance on a per-possession basis rather than per-game totals. This removes the distortion caused by pace differences between teams. A team that plays fast will naturally have higher raw scoring totals, but that does not necessarily mean they score more efficiently. Evaluating on a per-100-possessions basis allows direct comparison between all teams regardless of playing style. This is the foundation of the entire TruRanking system.

How are game predictions generated?

Each prediction starts with the TruRanking rating differential between the two teams, adjusted for home-court advantage. That adjusted differential is fed into a logistic regression model calibrated on thousands of historical Division I game outcomes to produce a win probability. Projected scores are derived by combining each team's offensive efficiency against the opponent's defensive efficiency, scaled to the expected game pace. Visit the Prediction Center for today's forecasts.

How does the Monte Carlo tournament simulation work?

TruTourney runs over 10,000 simulations of the full NCAA Tournament bracket. In each simulation, every game is resolved by converting the TruRanking rating differential into a win probability and using a random number draw to determine the winner. The bracket advances round by round until a champion is crowned. The percentage of simulations in which a team reaches each round becomes its advancement probability estimate.

How does TruBrackets select the tournament field?

TruBrackets identifies one automatic qualifier from each of the 32 Division I conferences by selecting the highest-rated team as the projected conference champion. The remaining at-large spots are filled with the next-best available teams by overall TruRanking rating, regardless of conference affiliation. Seeds are then assigned across four regions based on overall rating rank.

Can I view historical seasons and past predictions?

Yes. The Full Rankings page has a season selector that lets you switch between the current season and archived historical rankings. The Prediction Center also provides a calendar view where you can review past predictions alongside their actual outcomes.

What does strength of schedule measure?

Strength of schedule (SOS) reflects the average quality of all opponents a team has faced during the season. It is derived from the aggregate TruRanking ratings of every team on their schedule. A higher SOS means tougher competition. SOS is factored into each team's overall rating so that records compiled against different levels of competition are weighted appropriately. A team with a strong record against a demanding schedule will rate higher than a team with the same record against weaker opponents.

Why might rankings change significantly overnight?

Ratings are interconnected through strength of schedule. When a team wins or loses, it affects not only their own rating but the SOS calculation for every team they have played this season. A single high-profile upset can cause ripple effects across dozens of teams' ratings in the daily update. This is normal and reflects the model correctly incorporating new information about how good each team actually is.

How does home-court advantage work in predictions?

The prediction model applies a home-court adjustment to the rating differential before calculating win probabilities. The home team receives a statistical boost reflecting the well-documented advantage of playing in front of a home crowd, in a familiar arena, and without the fatigue of travel. Games played at neutral sites, including all NCAA Tournament games, receive no home-court adjustment.

What is the Bubble Watch on TruBrackets?

The Bubble Watch section on TruBrackets highlights teams whose NCAA Tournament selection status is uncertain. It shows the Last Four In (the final at-large teams that made the projected field) and the First Four Out (the next-best teams that just missed the cut). These lists change frequently as games are played and ratings shift, making them essential viewing during the final weeks of the regular season and conference tournament play.

How is conference strength calculated?

Each conference's overall rating on the Conference Rankings page is the average of all member team TruRanking ratings. This captures both top-end talent and overall depth, since a conference with one elite team but many weak programs will rate lower than one with consistent quality across the board. The page also shows aggregate non-conference win-loss records, average efficiency metrics, and mean strength of schedule for each league.

How can I contact TruRanking?

You can reach us at info@truranking.com for questions, feedback, or inquiries about the site. For more about the team behind TruRanking, visit the About page.