This glossary covers the basketball analytics terms you will encounter on TruRanking's rankings, predictions, bracketology, and tournament simulation pages. For a complete explanation of how these concepts fit together in our system, see the Methodology page.

Rating (TruRanking Rating)

A team's overall strength score, combining offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and strength of schedule into a single number on a normalized scale. This is the primary ranking metric on the Full Rankings page. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams. The rating is recalculated daily after all new game results are processed.

Offensive Efficiency

The number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. This metric removes the effect of pace, allowing direct comparison between teams that play at very different speeds. A team averaging 112 points per 100 possessions is scoring efficiently regardless of whether their games end in the 60s or the 90s.

Defensive Efficiency

The number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. Lower values indicate stronger defense. Like offensive efficiency, this metric is pace-independent, so a team that plays slowly and allows 58 points per game is not automatically a better defensive team than one that plays fast and allows 72.

Efficiency Margin

The difference between a team's offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. A team that scores 110 points per 100 possessions and allows 95 has an efficiency margin of +15. This single number captures a team's net performance on both ends of the floor and is one of the strongest predictors of success in college basketball.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

A measure of the average quality of all opponents a team has faced, expressed as a rating value. SOS is derived from the aggregate TruRanking ratings of every opponent on a team's schedule. A higher SOS indicates that a team has played tougher competition. This metric is factored into each team's overall rating to ensure that records compiled against different levels of competition are weighted appropriately.

Pace

The average number of possessions a team uses per game. Pace describes how fast or slow a team plays but does not by itself indicate quality. A team averaging 75 possessions per game plays a significantly faster style than one averaging 62. TruRanking's efficiency metrics are calculated on a per-possession basis specifically to remove the influence of pace from team evaluations.

Tempo-Free Analysis

An analytical approach that measures basketball performance independent of game pace. By evaluating teams on a per-possession basis rather than per-game totals, tempo-free analysis allows fair comparisons between teams that play at different speeds. This is the foundation of the entire TruRanking system. See the Methodology page for details on how tempo-free efficiency ratings are calculated.

Win Probability

The estimated likelihood that a given team will win a specific game, expressed as a percentage. On the Prediction Center, win probabilities are generated by feeding the TruRanking rating differential between two teams (adjusted for home-court advantage) into a logistic regression model. A team listed at 72% win probability is expected to win that game roughly 72 times out of 100 if the matchup were repeated.

Projected Spread

The expected margin of victory for the favored team in a given game, derived from the TruRanking model. A projected spread of -6.5 for the home team means the model expects them to win by approximately 6 to 7 points. The Prediction Center shows how the model's projected spread compares to the current market consensus line where available.

Against the Spread (ATS)

A measure of how often a team or model's predictions beat the point spread set by oddsmakers. If a team is favored by 7 points and wins by 10, they covered the spread. ATS records are useful for evaluating the model's ability to identify value relative to market expectations, beyond simply picking winners.

Automatic Qualifier (AQ)

A team that earns an NCAA Tournament bid by winning its conference tournament (or being projected to do so). There are 32 Division I conferences, each awarding one automatic bid. On TruBrackets, automatic qualifiers are projected by selecting the highest-rated team in each conference as the likely conference champion.

At-Large Bid

An NCAA Tournament invitation awarded to a team that did not win its conference tournament but has a strong enough overall profile to merit selection. The Selection Committee fills 36 at-large spots after the 32 automatic qualifiers are determined. TruBrackets projects at-large selections by taking the next-best available teams by overall TruRanking rating.

Seed

A number from 1 to 16 assigned to each team in the NCAA Tournament bracket, indicating relative strength within a region. The top four overall teams receive No. 1 seeds across four regions, the next four receive No. 2 seeds, and so on. Seeding determines first-round matchups: a No. 1 seed plays a No. 16 seed, a No. 2 plays a No. 15, and so forth.

Bubble Team

A team whose NCAA Tournament selection status is uncertain heading into Selection Sunday. Bubble teams are typically ranked in the range just inside or just outside the projected at-large cutoff. The TruBrackets Bubble Watch section shows the Last Four In (final at-large teams that made the projected field) and First Four Out (next-best teams that just missed).

Monte Carlo Simulation

A statistical technique that uses repeated random sampling to estimate outcomes. TruTourney runs over 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full NCAA Tournament bracket, resolving each game based on win probabilities derived from TruRanking ratings. The frequency with which each team advances to a given round across all simulations produces its advancement probability estimates.

Logistic Regression

A statistical model used to predict the probability of a binary outcome (in this case, win or loss) based on one or more input variables. TruRanking's logistic model takes the rating differential between two teams as input and outputs a win probability. The model has been trained on thousands of historical Division I game outcomes to ensure reliable calibration.

Home-Court Advantage

The statistical benefit that a team receives from playing on its own court. In college basketball, the home team wins at a significantly higher rate than the away team, even after accounting for team quality differences. TruRanking's prediction model applies a home-court adjustment to the rating differential before generating win probabilities, reflecting this well-documented effect. Tournament games played at neutral sites receive no home-court adjustment.

Conference Strength Rating

The average TruRanking rating of all teams in a given conference, used to rank the 32 Division I conferences by overall quality. A conference with one dominant team but many weak programs will rate lower than a conference with consistent quality across the board. The Conference Rankings page displays these ratings alongside aggregate win-loss records, average efficiency metrics, and mean strength of schedule for each league.

NET Rankings

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, used by the NCAA Selection Committee as one input in their tournament selection and seeding process. NET incorporates team results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, and net efficiency. TruRanking is an independent system with its own methodology; while both use efficiency-based principles, TruRanking ratings are calculated separately and may differ from NET rankings for individual teams.