NCAA Tournament Simulator (TruTourney)
Championship Odds
Advancement Probabilities
Head-to-Head Matchup Calculator
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Select two teams to see head-to-head probability
About TruTourney
TruTourney uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate each team's probability of advancing through the NCAA Tournament. We run 10,000+ simulations of the entire bracket, using TruRanking ratings to determine win probability for each matchup. All tournament games are treated as neutral site contests.
Probabilities update daily based on the latest TruBrackets projection. After Selection Sunday, simulations use the official NCAA bracket. During the tournament, completed games are locked in and only remaining matchups are simulated.